Ground Media today released a groundbreaking randomized control trial that tested the effectiveness of a recent Trump anti-transgender campaign ad.
Despite the Trump campaign recently spending nearly $20 million to air anti-transgender TV ads over 55,000 times in battleground states, Ground Media’s study reveals that the ad fails to achieve its political goals. The study compared responses of those who saw the Trump ad to those who saw an unrelated ad, and revealed that the Trump ad yielded no statistically significant shift in voter choice, mobilization or likelihood to vote.
However, the study highlights a more harmful consequence for trans Americans: the ad significantly reduces public acceptance of trans people across nearly all demographics. Viewers exposed to the anti-trans ad were less likely to support policies ensuring trans access to healthcare (-3.7 point backlash) and showed a reduced comfortability with accepting a trans friend or family member (-3.1 point backlash), even among those who say they currently know someone who is trans (-3.5 point backlash).
“What this demonstrates is that attacking the trans community isn’t just a weak and feckless political strategy—it’s a deeply cynical one,” said David Rochkind, CEO of Ground Media. “These ads weaponize trans-identity to sow fear and division, making our country less safe for everyone.”
The data is based on a Swayable randomized controlled trial of 1,981 adults, including 1,354 likely voters, conducted by Ground Media on October 19, 2024, with a confidence interval of 95%.
Last week, Vice President Harris responded to a question from Fox News’ Bret Baier regarding trans healthcare for incarcerated people, referring to it as a “remote issue” and stating: “I will follow the law, and it’s a law that Donald Trump actually followed.” She emphasized that the government is legally obligated to provide medically necessary healthcare to all individuals in its custody.
“Tens of millions of dollars are being spent on ads that demonize and spread lies about transgender people, and it’s not earning one vote,” GLAAD President and CEO Sarah Kate Ellis. “After the election, trans Americans will have to deal with the dangerous fallout from the shameful lies and misinformation that far too many political candidates are intentionally spreading.”
Previously, a 2024 GLAAD Voter Poll found 53% of both registered and likely 2024 voters say they would oppose a political candidate who speaks frequently about restrictions that target trans youth. GLAAD’s 2024 Accelerating Acceptance Report, conducted earlier this year, found 77% of non-LGBTQ Americans would support a trans friend or family member.
GLAAD and Ground Media launched the Here We Are campaign earlier this year to elevate the stories of trans Americans and their families. This month, Equality Michigan worked with Ground Media in Michigan to run a series of Here We Are ads, including this one featuring Nadya Lopez (pictured, above), a trans woman from Miami, FL, and her father. In that state alone, the Here We Are ads have garnered 25 million impressions and 3 million video views. Here We Are ads are also running in Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Ohio.
“Transgender people just want to live their lives free from fear,” said Lopez. “I’m not political – I just want the world to know that we are here, our lives are filled with joy, and we are not going anywhere.”
The ads are aimed at counter-programming anti-trans narratives expected from political campaigns in the 2024 election cycle. The ads are currently running in Michigan, in partnership with the Equality Michigan Action Network, as well as in Georgia, Texas, and other states.
Here We Are is a groundbreaking storytelling campaign produced by GLAAD and Ground Media, focused on amplifying the voices of trans individuals to foster acceptance and combat discrimination. The campaign features 13 video vignettes and two radio spots of trans adults and their supportive families. Comcast NBCUniversal, TikTok, iHeartRadio, and Paramount are among companies to donate ad space to run the ads nationwide. Here We Are was named an AdAge Editor’s Pick and last week was named a finalist in multiple categories of the Anthem Awards. For more information, visit HereWeAreNow.com.